prototype

I don't know, you know? I just can't say? All I can think of is that 1) the first game featured an absolutely in-form Randy Johnson, and was never really in reach, and 2) yesterday featured another lopsided pitching matchup. Brandon Webb is really good, and Sergio, while damn good against the Pirates, is still just Sergio.

Still though, it borders on the inconceivable: the Cubs were playing so well, destroying opponents in every phase of the game, and now they have been dominated like little bitches for 2 straight. It's childish, but it pains me to even think about it. I need a drink.

It's amazing the things you will consider rational after a lifetime of Cub-fandom. For example, I reported the results of the Cubs 2-game annihilation of the Pirates to my mother earlier this week, whereupon she rejoined: "They should save some runs for when it matters." Given the Cubs frustratingly inconsistent history, this statement seems to hold a lot of water for the perennial fan. You never COULD tell when the Cubs were going to get any runs, for many years, and a lot of the time it seemed like they only got runs in meaningless games versus bad teams. That's because most of the time, all Cubs games were meaningless; and if they ever did look good, it was against the few teams worse than they were.

But lo, common sense (and our friend Bill James) tells us this: good teams don't save up runs for important moments; nobody can. Good teams just keep beating the crap out of other teams. It's a trend I'd like to see continue.

I will see my first game of the year at Wrigley this afternoon, on what promises to be a chilly and overcast day in Chicago. That's fine; Wood will be on the hill, and the Mets are terrible this year. That doesn't mean they'll win, but I like the odds.

Yesterday saw a 3-1 win over the aforementioned Metropolitans, in which Greg Maddux looked to shake off some early-season rust. View his 03 and 04 early season stats here and here, and let me know if you are worried, long-term. For the next several weeks, I expect the rotation to be very solid. And then Prior might come back. I just giggled.

4/20: More of the same

Pythagorean buttwhippings like this are easy to get used to. So is seeing Carlos Z start like every batter out with a strike or two and then get them to beat the ball into the ground in the general direction of a middle infielder. 111 pitches, though, is again quite a few, especially with a 7-run lead after 6 innings. Look at the pitch-by-pitch to see how tired he was getting...after 5 innings of first-pitch strikes, he starts getting into deep counts and working from behind almost every hitter. How about getting Wuertz some work to build up his confidence?

I guess it's a quibble, but I want Zambrano around a long time. I want to see more games like this, too. I also want a pony.

4/19: Turning Point Game. At least for me.

At 6-6 going into today's action, I really didn't want to have to think about a sub-500 Cubs team that was struggling to beat the Reds on a regular basis. What I needed from the Cubs was a convincing victory, replete with a strong starting pitching performance, the appearance of a non-LaTroy Hawkins reliever who could manage not to give up a gopher ball, and continued good hitting.

Let's see: 8-1 final, 6 1/3 strong ones from Clement, 2 up and down for Kyle "Tightpants" Farnsworth (I lifted that from somewhere else, by the way), and a grand slam from Derrek Lee. This is how the Cubs are supposed to play this year.

Although Clement struggled in his first and last innings of work, he was obviously much improved from his first two starts. He was working both sides of the plate with good control, his breaking pitches were filthy, and he got lots and lots of ground balls. Control has been a major issue with the staff so far, both starters and relievers. Clement found his with the benefit of a highly questionable call from umpire Chuck Meriweather and then pretty much ate the Reds up for four innings. Maddux looked better yesterday, too, although his line will not indicate it. When the Cubs pitchers can start regularly getting through the first inning with less than 1 walk and 20 pitches, you will see me relax significantly.

This is kind of disjointed, but what do you expect after a series like this? And it's still April. I'm off to score some Xanax.

4/16's Cubs Game: No comment.

I take my final teacher's licensure test (in the state of Illinois) today. Pedagogy and curriculum; I'm a bit shaky on both of those. Wish I'd spent less time bitching about how crappy the School of Education was at IU (scroll down to 4/10) and more time actually reading my classroom management texts. Not that it would have helped anyway.

Downtown tonight, which should be a blast. As Mark Staron says: when the weather's nice, the city's real hard to beat. When the weather is normal, however, you can definitely beat it. No one wants to be defeated.

I have to give props to a guy who handles smack with this kind of aplomb. While I apologize for my flagrantly dumb namecalling, I don't see how anybody could think Andy Pratt was going to stay in the majors for any appreciable length of time. He made 3 appearances that I saw. The first, against the Braves, was a heavily qualified success, as he did not allow the winning run to score in 2/3 of an inning. The second was extremely troubling, as he failed to find the plate while facing two batters who later scored to beat the Cubs. The third outing was a classic test by Dusty, in which Pratt was given the opportunity to pitch in a relatively pressure-free situation and the Cubs could see if the 2nd Braves game was merely an aberration. He blew it; was awful again, the writing was on the wall, and he was assigned to the minors. These are not the early-90s Cubs: there is depth on the farm (and in the pen!) and people with real cerebral cortices are in charge. Dig.

Anyway, certain other Cubs--Cubs worthy of major league salaries--deserve more praise than they have been getting in this space. Let's hear it for the following:

Aramis Ramirez. 2 HR today (8-3 Cubs win) to go with 5 doubles previously, he's putting up numbers that make me think happy things about a Cubs 3B for the first time since...well, since Kevin Orie had that one pretty decent year. This guy smokes the ball all over the yard when he's right, and most importantly, he seems to not be sucking after a decent first campaign with the Cubs. There's a reason Orie's not still there, remember.

LaTroy Hawkins. Seems high-quality. Throws offspeed and breaking with control, throws a hard and accurate fastball. Allowed his first baserunner in 4 IP today. Throws almost exactly 11 pitches every inning. Is from the Chicago area.

Rodan. Actually works the count and takes a BB, when it's there! Good thing Dusty likes him; otherwise, his infuriating patience at the plate might land him on the bench. Plays a great-looking 1B so far, as well. Dynamite.

The Cubs Crank feels wise and savvy, thanks to two apparently correct predictions in three days. First of all, I warned you that Maddux might not be as stellar as was widely expected, and while I caution everyone to go easy on the doom and gloom, the early returns support my conclusion. Next, I noted that Andy Pratt's performance would force even the Cubs to admit he wasn't major-league ready, and lo: he has been sent to AAA as of this morning. It doesn't really matter who they bring up to replace him; simply removing him from the lineup has eliminated both the worst member of the team (yes, even including Ramon Martinez) and the direct cause of the worst loss of the season so far (yes, even including Monday's Wrigley opener).

Clement goes today vs. Brian Vogelsong. The hitters will need to do more hitting than they did in fairly pathetic effort on Monday. Clement is going to have to limit his walks if he wants a chance to win. I find Clement super-frustrating to watch, because he struggles with control at an age where he should have already figured out how to stay around the strike zone. Zambrano and Wood can use their age as an excuse for awarding so many free passes; not so Abe Lincoln. At his age, it makes you question whether he'll ever get it together. Of course, he does get it together once or twice a season, and he's pretty much unhittable when he does. So I find myself constantly waiting for the return of the good command and biting slider. And waiting.

I don't want to say "I told you so" about Maddux, and in fact it would be stupid to say such a thing with so much of the season left to play. Take a gander at this hilarious website, written by perhaps the stupidest person alive, to get a sense of what I mean. Some of it is obvious hyperbole, but already the Jeremiahs are predicting a summer of doom and gloom for the boys in blue. I'm not willing to rule this possibility out, at this point, but I certainly think two things: 1) There's a lot more baseball to play, and 2) this is a good thing for the Cubs. Count me out of those who see no room for improvement, especially if Andy Pratt's quest to run his ERA up near infinity is the main cause of your misery. He will not finish this season (or next month, for that matter) in the major leagues.

It will be beneficial to you to believe the following statement:

Mark Prior's absence is going to be good for him in the long run.

Just trust me. Obviously, he's not indestructible; nobody is. Like everybody else, he needs to save his arm from wear and tear. This missed time is going to benefit him later on, and it's more important that he excel over the long run than to make it back this season. Even if he does miss the entire year, which I do not forsee, take heart: He is only 23. Zambrano is only 23. Wood is only 27. Clement is only 29. Derrek Lee is only 28. Ramirez is only 26. Patterson is only 24. Barrett is only 27. All but Clement should be with the Cubs for at least several more years, and of that list, which would you be least sorry to see go? That's right. Relax. Jim Hendry is only 49.

Prepare yourself for a long summer of Cubs-related updates. Today, I present the basic premises with which we'll start:

I believe that there are only a few important stats, and I don't think batting average or ERA are among them. For hitters, it's walks, on-base percentage plus slugging, homers, strikeouts (preferably few), and pitches per at-bat. For pitchers, it's walks, home runs, strikeouts, and number of pitches. THAT'S IT.

I expect the Cubs to win about 97 games this year. They've improved the offense, and the pitching will be as good or better than it was on a team that won 88 last season.

I won't be surprised if they don't win the division. As others have noted, the Astros' rotation is not measurably worse than the Cubs', and their hitting is much, much better. Especially here on Easter Sunday, with the Cubs struggling to score more than 3 a game and the 'Stros mashing out 7+ per. This will even out somewhat, but the Cubs' offense will not be their strength this year. As usual. In any case, I genuinely expect the Astros to take the division. But I also expect the Cubs to take the wild card, and once you're in the playoffs, everybody has a chance.

I expect Kerry Wood to have an excellent year. Perhaps not Cy Young-caliber, as some have predicted, but a 15-16 victory-type year, with lower walk and pitch totals than we have previously seen from him. He has matured in his life and in his game, and he's no longer trying to strike everybody out. As long as he remains healthy, he should post a fine season.

I expect Mark Prior to come back OK. The Cub Reporter noted astutely that his early-season absence will prevent him from throwing 200 innings, which I'm as excited about as anything. It seems strange to say, but with the way Dusty abuses his pitchers (and I'll expand on that at a later date), I believe the lighter workload will serve Prior well.

As you may already have figured out, I'm having Doubts about Dusty. He's inarguably a fine motivator, but as a tactician and a strategist, I find him on par with a Little League dad. I had a Pony league manager who would routinely run our ace out for 140+ (!) pitches--this guy was a total jagoff, too, by the way--and I feel like Dusty would do the same if nobody was paying attention. Additionally, he's starting to make some strange roster moves, like routinely subbing Paul Bako for Mike Barrett; inserting Todd Hollandsworth--who I like a lot so far, but come on--for Derrek Lee; and putting in Andy Pratt with a runner on in the bottom of the 8th against the Braves. Bill Simmons used to talk about how some managers seemed to think baseball was judged by degrees of difficulty, which I think Dusty may be falling into. I'd just like to see the best lineup on the field as often as possible. At no time does such a lineup include Paul Bako.

I'll be happy if Greg Maddux wins 12. He's clearly on the downside, giving up tons more homers and walks than ever before. He's always been a control guy, and high numbers of free passes and roudtrippers indicate a loss of control. When you only throw 88ish, there's not much room for error. He'll still be better than Shawn Estes was last year--to be fair, it's possible that I could have been better than Shawn Estes was--but don't expect anywhere near 15 wins from him. I don't.

Sammy's on the downside, too. 35-40 homers is all that's in the tank, I'm afraid. He'll still get his ribs, because the top of the lineup is as good as it's been since he got here, but he's getting old--and he can't take 'roids anymore. Good thing Ramirez and Lee are here full-time.

The bullpen and bench are good, possibly as good as they've ever been for the Cubs. I'm glad I never have to see Lenny Harris again. Even in good pens, though, there are always some guys who should not come in unless their team is either 5 runs ahead or 5 runs behind. I call these "Plus or Minus Five Guys," and Andy Pratt is one of those guys. Maybe Todd Wellemeyer, too, but it's too early to tell. I'm going to need the bullpen to stop walking so many batters, please.

We are going to refer to Derrek Lee as "Rodan." Look it up. Twice.

That should lay the groundwork for now. Let's go Cubs!