Sunday, April 11, 2004
Prepare yourself for a long summer of Cubs-related updates. Today, I present the basic premises with which we'll start:
I believe that there are only a few important stats, and I don't think batting average or ERA are among them. For hitters, it's walks, on-base percentage plus slugging, homers, strikeouts (preferably few), and pitches per at-bat. For pitchers, it's walks, home runs, strikeouts, and number of pitches. THAT'S IT.
I expect the Cubs to win about 97 games this year. They've improved the offense, and the pitching will be as good or better than it was on a team that won 88 last season.
I won't be surprised if they don't win the division. As others have noted, the Astros' rotation is not measurably worse than the Cubs', and their hitting is much, much better. Especially here on Easter Sunday, with the Cubs struggling to score more than 3 a game and the 'Stros mashing out 7+ per. This will even out somewhat, but the Cubs' offense will not be their strength this year. As usual. In any case, I genuinely expect the Astros to take the division. But I also expect the Cubs to take the wild card, and once you're in the playoffs, everybody has a chance.
I expect Kerry Wood to have an excellent year. Perhaps not Cy Young-caliber, as some have predicted, but a 15-16 victory-type year, with lower walk and pitch totals than we have previously seen from him. He has matured in his life and in his game, and he's no longer trying to strike everybody out. As long as he remains healthy, he should post a fine season.
I expect Mark Prior to come back OK. The Cub Reporter noted astutely that his early-season absence will prevent him from throwing 200 innings, which I'm as excited about as anything. It seems strange to say, but with the way Dusty abuses his pitchers (and I'll expand on that at a later date), I believe the lighter workload will serve Prior well.
As you may already have figured out, I'm having Doubts about Dusty. He's inarguably a fine motivator, but as a tactician and a strategist, I find him on par with a Little League dad. I had a Pony league manager who would routinely run our ace out for 140+ (!) pitches--this guy was a total jagoff, too, by the way--and I feel like Dusty would do the same if nobody was paying attention. Additionally, he's starting to make some strange roster moves, like routinely subbing Paul Bako for Mike Barrett; inserting Todd Hollandsworth--who I like a lot so far, but come on--for Derrek Lee; and putting in Andy Pratt with a runner on in the bottom of the 8th against the Braves. Bill Simmons used to talk about how some managers seemed to think baseball was judged by degrees of difficulty, which I think Dusty may be falling into. I'd just like to see the best lineup on the field as often as possible. At no time does such a lineup include Paul Bako.
I'll be happy if Greg Maddux wins 12. He's clearly on the downside, giving up tons more homers and walks than ever before. He's always been a control guy, and high numbers of free passes and roudtrippers indicate a loss of control. When you only throw 88ish, there's not much room for error. He'll still be better than Shawn Estes was last year--to be fair, it's possible that I could have been better than Shawn Estes was--but don't expect anywhere near 15 wins from him. I don't.
Sammy's on the downside, too. 35-40 homers is all that's in the tank, I'm afraid. He'll still get his ribs, because the top of the lineup is as good as it's been since he got here, but he's getting old--and he can't take 'roids anymore. Good thing Ramirez and Lee are here full-time.
The bullpen and bench are good, possibly as good as they've ever been for the Cubs. I'm glad I never have to see Lenny Harris again. Even in good pens, though, there are always some guys who should not come in unless their team is either 5 runs ahead or 5 runs behind. I call these "Plus or Minus Five Guys," and Andy Pratt is one of those guys. Maybe Todd Wellemeyer, too, but it's too early to tell. I'm going to need the bullpen to stop walking so many batters, please.
We are going to refer to Derrek Lee as "Rodan." Look it up. Twice.
That should lay the groundwork for now. Let's go Cubs!
I believe that there are only a few important stats, and I don't think batting average or ERA are among them. For hitters, it's walks, on-base percentage plus slugging, homers, strikeouts (preferably few), and pitches per at-bat. For pitchers, it's walks, home runs, strikeouts, and number of pitches. THAT'S IT.
I expect the Cubs to win about 97 games this year. They've improved the offense, and the pitching will be as good or better than it was on a team that won 88 last season.
I won't be surprised if they don't win the division. As others have noted, the Astros' rotation is not measurably worse than the Cubs', and their hitting is much, much better. Especially here on Easter Sunday, with the Cubs struggling to score more than 3 a game and the 'Stros mashing out 7+ per. This will even out somewhat, but the Cubs' offense will not be their strength this year. As usual. In any case, I genuinely expect the Astros to take the division. But I also expect the Cubs to take the wild card, and once you're in the playoffs, everybody has a chance.
I expect Kerry Wood to have an excellent year. Perhaps not Cy Young-caliber, as some have predicted, but a 15-16 victory-type year, with lower walk and pitch totals than we have previously seen from him. He has matured in his life and in his game, and he's no longer trying to strike everybody out. As long as he remains healthy, he should post a fine season.
I expect Mark Prior to come back OK. The Cub Reporter noted astutely that his early-season absence will prevent him from throwing 200 innings, which I'm as excited about as anything. It seems strange to say, but with the way Dusty abuses his pitchers (and I'll expand on that at a later date), I believe the lighter workload will serve Prior well.
As you may already have figured out, I'm having Doubts about Dusty. He's inarguably a fine motivator, but as a tactician and a strategist, I find him on par with a Little League dad. I had a Pony league manager who would routinely run our ace out for 140+ (!) pitches--this guy was a total jagoff, too, by the way--and I feel like Dusty would do the same if nobody was paying attention. Additionally, he's starting to make some strange roster moves, like routinely subbing Paul Bako for Mike Barrett; inserting Todd Hollandsworth--who I like a lot so far, but come on--for Derrek Lee; and putting in Andy Pratt with a runner on in the bottom of the 8th against the Braves. Bill Simmons used to talk about how some managers seemed to think baseball was judged by degrees of difficulty, which I think Dusty may be falling into. I'd just like to see the best lineup on the field as often as possible. At no time does such a lineup include Paul Bako.
I'll be happy if Greg Maddux wins 12. He's clearly on the downside, giving up tons more homers and walks than ever before. He's always been a control guy, and high numbers of free passes and roudtrippers indicate a loss of control. When you only throw 88ish, there's not much room for error. He'll still be better than Shawn Estes was last year--to be fair, it's possible that I could have been better than Shawn Estes was--but don't expect anywhere near 15 wins from him. I don't.
Sammy's on the downside, too. 35-40 homers is all that's in the tank, I'm afraid. He'll still get his ribs, because the top of the lineup is as good as it's been since he got here, but he's getting old--and he can't take 'roids anymore. Good thing Ramirez and Lee are here full-time.
The bullpen and bench are good, possibly as good as they've ever been for the Cubs. I'm glad I never have to see Lenny Harris again. Even in good pens, though, there are always some guys who should not come in unless their team is either 5 runs ahead or 5 runs behind. I call these "Plus or Minus Five Guys," and Andy Pratt is one of those guys. Maybe Todd Wellemeyer, too, but it's too early to tell. I'm going to need the bullpen to stop walking so many batters, please.
We are going to refer to Derrek Lee as "Rodan." Look it up. Twice.
That should lay the groundwork for now. Let's go Cubs!
