Tuesday, August 03, 2004
Here's a fun stat: by some measures I happen to endorse very highly, the Cubs' record is 4 games worse than it should be. By this, I mean that Pythagoras (remember him?) would expect a team that has scored 489 runs and allowed only 405 to have won 62 games at this point in the season. At 62-43, the Cubs would not only lead the wild-card chase, they'd have the third-best record in the entire major leagues (Cards and Yankees).
By contrast, the SF Giants have outperformed their expected record by 2 wins, and the Reds by a whopping 7. I've employed a favorite phrase against Reds fans since late May, when I advised them to enjoy their time above .500. And indeed, the Reds found it hard to be so lucky for so long.
We can only hope that the Giants will encounter the same difficulty, and that the Cubs' luck will start to even out. There's no guarantee that luck evens out over the course of a single season (in fact, it rarely does), but trends do even out eventually. Here's hoping Eventually is Now.
(PS: Nomar!)
By contrast, the SF Giants have outperformed their expected record by 2 wins, and the Reds by a whopping 7. I've employed a favorite phrase against Reds fans since late May, when I advised them to enjoy their time above .500. And indeed, the Reds found it hard to be so lucky for so long.
We can only hope that the Giants will encounter the same difficulty, and that the Cubs' luck will start to even out. There's no guarantee that luck evens out over the course of a single season (in fact, it rarely does), but trends do even out eventually. Here's hoping Eventually is Now.
(PS: Nomar!)
